Research on Prediction of Land Use Change in Central Cities of Southern Yunnan Based on Markov Model

The central city of southern Yunnan is located in the Hani Yi Autonomous Prefecture of Honghe, Yunnan Province, and consists of three cities: Mengzi City, Kaiyuan City and Gejiu City. The central city of southern Yunnan has obvious characteristics of natural elements such as large altitude difference, obvious topography, and rich and diverse climate. Land simulation is one of the important technical means to predict the future trend and direction of urban development. Generally, by calculating the probability of land use conversion over the years, selecting factors influencing urban development, and constructing a land prediction model. This paper uses the 2009 and 2014 land use data as the base year data, and divides the land types into 8 categories: cultivated land, forest land, garden land, agricultural land, construction land, water area, unused land and grassland, using Marko in IDRISI 17.0 The husband model obtains the increase or decrease of each land use type and the conversion probability of each land use type, predicts the spatial distribution of the land use type in 2016 through the conversion matrix, and uses the 2016 land use type to verify the kappa coefficient to simulate and predict southern Yunnan The spatial distribution of land types in central cities in 2035. Through permanent basic farmland, ecological protection red line, water area and other prohibitive factors, and restrictive factors such as topography and landform, soil type, night light index and other restrictive factors, the central city of southern Yunnan will be simulated and predicted by multiple scenarios in 2035, and land use types under each scenario will be increased Analysis of the reduction situation, in-depth study of the impact of different scenario simulations on the future development direction and spatial pattern of the city, in order to provide a reference for the future development direction of the city and the layout of construction land.