Ecological risk prediction based on land use simulation under multiple scenarios: A case study of urban agglomeration in central Zhejiang, China

The simulation model of land use change is an effective tool to study the interaction between human and nature in different spatial and temporal characteristics. Due to the future sustainable demand and the rapid growth of population, large-scale human activities will lead to the change of land use type and the excessive consumption of natural resources, which will seriously threaten the security and development of society, economy and environment. Therefore, how to scientifically and systematically predict the urban ecological risks under different situations has become an important issue to change the current dilemma. In China's urban agglomeration of middle of Zhejiang as an example, this study based on land use type 2000201 and 2020, using the future land use simulation (FLUS) model, can be focused on climate change of social economy and natural factors to be considered at the same time, natural development, rapid development in 2050, a multi-objective protection and four kinds of scenarios to simulate forest construction, The ecological risk index was calculated according to the landscape pattern, and the spatial dependence of the ecological risk index was further discussed by using spatial autocorrelation analysis. The simulation results show that the model is effective in predicting the land use change under different scenarios under the guidance of multiple purposes, and the ecological risk prediction based on this model is effective.