Evaluation and prediction of sustainable development potential of mountain towns based on ecological footprint

Abstract: As an effective method to quantify the utilization and evaluate the sustainability of natural resources, ecological footprint can indicate the degree of dependence of human production activities and living on natural resources. In order to measure the sustainable potential of the ecological system in Lushan County, this paper optimizes the original ecological footprint model, comprehensively using factors such as ecological stress index, ecological sustainability index, ecological occupation index, ecological footprint diversity index, and ecosystem development capacity. And then evaluate the sustainable development of Lushan County from 2009 to 2019 and use the regression equation model to predict the future sustainable development potential of Lushan County. The results showed that from 2009 to 2019, the per capita ecological footprint of Lushan County decreased by 39%, and the ecological carrying capacity decreased by 14%. Although the ecological deficit was still in 2019, it decreased by more than 55% compared with 2009, and the ecological gradually recovered from the deficit. The ecological footprint diversity index remained stable, but the ecosystem development capacity was reduced by 37%. While the ecological stress index has been decreasing year by year, the ecological sustainability is still poor here. If the current consumption pattern is maintained, by 2029, the ecological carrying capacity of Lushan County will be further reduced. This area will face the problem of insufficient ecological carrying capacity, and ecological security is not optimistic. Therefore, there is an urgent need to reduce the ecological footprint and increase the ecological carrying capacity, and propose a future ecological development strategy for Lushan County, and provide guidance for the sustainable development of Lushan County in the future.